Table 4 Discrete-time survival analysis predicting self-reported COPD incidence, PATH Study (Waves 1–5, 2013–2019)

Time-Varying Cigarette and Cigar Use

 Non-Current Use

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

 Exclusive Cigarette Use

2.91***

2.45, 3.33

2.78***

2.27, 3.41

2.85***

2.32, 3.49

1.48**

1.13, 1.93

 Exclusive Cigar Use

1.29

0.65, 2.56

1.54

0.76, 3.13

1.5

0.73, 3.11

1.57

0.77, 3.21

 Dual Use

3.73***

2.61, 5.30

3.60***

2.53, 5.14

3.69***

2.52, 5.39

1.88**

1.24, 2.85

Age^e

1.04***

1.02, 1.04

1.04***

1.03, 1.05

1.03***

1.02, 1.04

Sex (Female = 1)

1.59***

1.35, 1.93

1.60***

1.32, 1.94

1.72***

1.43, 2.07

Race/Ethnicity

 NH White

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

 Hispanic

1

0.78, 1.28

1.03

0.81, 1.32

1.18

0.92, 1.50

 NH Black

1.08

0.86, 1.35

1.11

0.88, 1.40

1.21

0.95, 1.54

 NH Other

1.03

0.65, 1.62

1.05

0.65, 1.65

1.08

0.68, 1.71

Education

 High School or Less

1.94***

1.51, 2.51

1.93***

1.50, 2.50

1.74***

1.33, 2.27

 Some College

1.46*

1.09, 1.95

1.45*

1.09, 1.94

1.34*

1.0, 1.80

 Bachelor Degree or Higher

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

REF

Baseline Risk Factors

Asthma

2.93***

2.28, 3.76

2.91***

2.27, 3.75

3.0***

2.31, 3.90

Obesity (BMI > 30)

1.42***

1.19, 1.71

1.41***

1.18, 1.70

1.40***

1.17, 1.68

Time-varying second-hand smoke exposure^f

1.10***

1.06, 1.15

1.11***

1.06, 1.15

1.08**

1.03, 1.13

Time-varying ‘other combustible’ use^g

1

0.37, 2.63

0.95

0.35, 2.62

Time-varying ENDS^h

1.26

0.88, 1.81

1.14

0.80, 1.65

Cigarette Smoking Status

 Non-former smoker

REF

REF

REF

REF

 Short-term former smoker

1.3

0.81, 2.08

0.68

0.40, 1.16

 Long-term former smoker

1.21

0.92, 1.60

0.64*

0.45, 0.91

Log cigarette pack-years^f

1.93***

1.63, 2.28