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Table 5 Univariate and multivariate regression analyses predicting the probability to have a prolonged hospitalisation

From: Clinical variables predicting the risk of a hospital stay for longer than 7 days in patients with severe acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a prospective study

Variable Univariate Multivariate
OR 95% CI p value OR 95% CI p
mMRC dyspnoea score (≥ 2) 2.07 1.29 to 3.32 0.002 2.24 (2.76) 1.34 to 3.74 (1.54 to 4.92) 0.002 (0.001)
GOLD 2017 stages: Stage A 1.00      
 Stage B 2.24 1.22 to 4.08 0.009
 Stage C 1.48 0.68 to 3.20 0.322
 Stage D 2.60 1.35 to 4.98 0.004
No. of previous AECOPD requiring hospitalisation (≥ 1) 1.57 1.05 to 2.35 0.030
Use of LTOT 1.72 1.12 to 2.64 0.014
Onset of symptoms until admission (≥ 7 days) 1.49 0.99 to 2.42 0.053
Use of antibiotics three months before admission 1.72 1.01 to 2.93 0.044    
Use of salbutamol two weeks before admission 3.44 1.59 to 7.43 0.002
Use of ipratropium two weeks before admission 2.84 1.34 to 6.01 0.006
COPD-SS (≥ 15 score) 1.39 0.94 to 2.05 0.095
Presence of congestive heart disease 2.14 1.21 to 3.79 0.009
Acute respiratory acidosis at admissiona 2.41 1.50 to 3.88 < 0.001 2.75 (2.68) 1.49 to 5.05 (1.34 to 5.38) 0.001 (0.005)
Hypercapnia at admissionb 1.90 1.26 to 2.87 0.002
Hypercapnia at day 3b 2.05 0.97 to 4.32 0.061
Acute severe hypoxemia at admissioncd 2.32 1.14 to 4.73 0.020    
Renal bicarbonate retention at admissione 1.84 1.21 to 2.80 0.004    
Need for NIMV 3.53 2.12 to 5.88 < 0.001    
Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the sputum sample of the previous yearf 4.75 0.96 to 23.34 0.055    
MRCT colonisationf 9.84 1.23 to 78.59 0.031    
Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the sputum sample during hospitalisationf 7.33 2.00 to 26.88 0.003    
Streptococcus pneumoniae in the sputum sample during hospitalisationf 0.33 0.11 to 0.96 0.042    
Use of cephalosporins during hospitalisation 4.54 0.98 to 21.06 0.053    
Use of fluoroquinolones during hospitalisation 0.61 0.40 to 0.93 0.023    
  1. In the univariate model the statistical significance considers a p value < 0.1. Data in parentheses report the multivariate model adjusted for anthropometric variables. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test p = 0.956 and p = 0.642 in the multivariate and multivariate adjusted model, respectively
  2. aAcute respiratory acidosis: pH < 7.35; bHypercapnia: PCO2 > 45 mmHg; cAcute severe hypoxemia: PaO2/FiO2 ratio < 200; dAnalysis excluding patients with LTOT; eRenal bicarbonate retention: HCO3 > 30 mmol/L; fDefinition and criteria are reported in Table 3
  3. Abbreviations: COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COPD-SS, COPD severity score questionnaire; GOLD, global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease; HCO3, serum bicarbonate; LTOT, long-term oxygen therapy; mMRC indicate modified Medical Research Council; MRCT, microorganisms resistant to conventional treatment; NIMV, non-invasive mechanical ventilation; PaCO2, partial arterial carbon dioxide pressure; PaO2/FiO2, ratio of partial arterial oxygen pressure to the fraction of inspired oxygen