Table 2 Summary of sensitivity analyses: prevalence rates (/1000) for COPD and severe + very severe COPD (GOLD grade 3–4) as predicted by the dynamic model for year 2025
From: An attempt at modeling COPD epidemiological trends in France
Variable | Alternative hypothesis entered as baseline values for the sensitivity analysis | COPD | Severe+very severe airflow limitation | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prevalence /1000 | Relative % change | Prevalence /1000 | Relative % change | ||
Prevalence | 10% relative increase in 2005 prevalence (~upper limit of the confidence interval) | 100.09 | + 4.5% | 20.62 | + 5.0% |
10% relative decrease in 2005 prevalence (~lower limit of the confidence interval) | 91.42 | −4.5% | 18.65 | −5.0% | |
Variation in the distribution of prevalent cases by severity of airflow limitation [13] | 90.82 | −5.2% | 18.98 | −3.4% | |
Variation in the distribution of prevalent cases by smoking status | 94.89 | −0.91% | 19.40 | −1.2% | |
Incidence | 10% increase in incidence | 100.36 | + 4.8% | 20.50 | + 4.4% |
10% decrease in incidence | 91.11 | −4.9% | 18.77 | − 4.4% | |
Increase of incidence in women, reaching incidence in men | 120.81 | + 26.2% | 24.22 | + 23.3% | |
Increase from 4.5 to 14% of the proportion of incident cases with severe or very severe airflow limitation at diagnosis | 97.01 | + 1.3% | 22.04 | + 12.2% | |
Probabilities of transition between GOLD grades | Reduction of transition rate to a more severe category, from 10 to 20 to 5% | 98.41 | + 2.8% | 8.92 | −54.6% |
Mortality [17] | Lower limit of the 95% confidence intervals of hazards ratios of COPD-related mortality by severity of airflow limitation | 104.77 | + 9.4% | 22.10 | + 12.5% |
Upper limit of the 95% confidence intervals of hazards ratios of COPD-related mortality by severity of airflow limitation | 85.31 | −10.9% | 16.98 | −13.5% | |
Probabilities of transition between smoking status | No change in individual smoking status | 93.18 | −2.7% | 18.95 | −3.5% |