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Table 4 MACRO validation cohort model. Time-dependent multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses for risk of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and bilirubin prior to first AECOPD

From: Serum bilirubin and the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations

Parameter aHR 95% CI p-value
MACRO Validation Cohort Model
 Treatment assignment 0.73 0.63–0.86 <0.001
 Male sex 0.78 0.66–0.91 0.002
 Black race 1.01 0.80–1.27 0.95
 BMI (kg/m2) 0.99 0.98–1.00 0.07
 Chronic bronchitis 1.22 1.03–1.44 0.02
 Supplemental oxygen use 1.29 1.09–1.53 0.003
 SGRQ score 1.01 1.00–1.01 0.003
 Inhaler usea - none (0 of 3 classes: LABA, LAMA, ICS) 0.74 0.54–1.03 0.20
 Inhaler usea - 1 of 3 classes 0.84 0.66–1.07 0.71
 Inhaler usea - 2 of 3 classes 0.91 0.76–1.09 0.52
 Steroid or antibiotic use in year prior to enrollment 1.64 1.28–2.10 <0.001
BILIRUBIN (per log 10 increase) 0.80 0.67–0.94 0.008
  1. Abbreviations: BMI body mass index, ICS inhaled corticosteroid, LABA long-acting beta agonist, LAMA long-acting antimuscarinic, SGRQ St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire
  2. aReferent group is 3-class inhaler therapy (long-acting beta agonist, long-acting antimuscarinic, and inhaled corticosteroid)
  3. Bilirubin is presented in bold, as this was the primary predictor variable