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Table 2 Distribution of subjects by estimated 30/60-day mortality and stratified risk group in both samples

From: A decision tree to assess short-term mortality after an emergency department visit for an exacerbation of COPD: a cohort study

 

Derivation sample (1252)

Validation sample (1235)

30-day mortality

 Risk group (Fig. 1)

No (1206)

Yes (36)

No (1193)

Yes (42)

 Low

785 (99.1)

7 (0.9)

769 (98.7)

10 (1.3)

—

—

—

—

—

 Medium

218 (96.0)

9 (4.0)

243 (97.2)

7 (2.8)

 High

146 (91.8)

13 (8.2)

135 (93.1)

10 (6.9)

 Very high

57 (77.0)

17 (23.0)

46 (75.4)

15 (24.6)

 AUC

0.808 (0.742 – 0.873)

0.767 (0.686 – 0.847)

60-day mortality

 Risk group (Fig. 2)

No (1173)

Yes (79)

No (1159)

Yes (76)

 Low

515 (99.4)

3 (0.6)

507 (98.4)

8 (1.6)

 Medium

183 (96.8)

6 (3.2)

160 (94.7)

9 (5.3)

—

—

—

—

—

 High

387 (90.6)

40 (9.4)

424 (92.8)

33 (7.2)

 Very high

88 (74.6)

30 (25.4)

68 (72.3)

26 (27.7)

 AUC

0.798 (0.757 – 0.838)

0.744 (0.691 – 0.898)

  1. Dashed horizontal lines shows the cut-off points for dichotomization of estimated mortality risk looking for optimal sensitivity-specificity combination in the derivation sample, leading to a sensitivity of 0.651 and a specificity of 0.848 for 30-day mortality risk and a sensitivity of 0.662 and a specificity of 0.823 for 60-day mortality risk