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Table 2 Distribution of subjects by estimated 30/60-day mortality and stratified risk group in both samples

From: A decision tree to assess short-term mortality after an emergency department visit for an exacerbation of COPD: a cohort study

  Derivation sample (1252) Validation sample (1235)
30-day mortality
 Risk group (Fig. 1) No (1206) Yes (36) No (1193) Yes (42)
 Low 785 (99.1) 7 (0.9) 769 (98.7) 10 (1.3)
 Medium 218 (96.0) 9 (4.0) 243 (97.2) 7 (2.8)
 High 146 (91.8) 13 (8.2) 135 (93.1) 10 (6.9)
 Very high 57 (77.0) 17 (23.0) 46 (75.4) 15 (24.6)
 AUC 0.808 (0.742 – 0.873) 0.767 (0.686 – 0.847)
60-day mortality
 Risk group (Fig. 2) No (1173) Yes (79) No (1159) Yes (76)
 Low 515 (99.4) 3 (0.6) 507 (98.4) 8 (1.6)
 Medium 183 (96.8) 6 (3.2) 160 (94.7) 9 (5.3)
 High 387 (90.6) 40 (9.4) 424 (92.8) 33 (7.2)
 Very high 88 (74.6) 30 (25.4) 68 (72.3) 26 (27.7)
 AUC 0.798 (0.757 – 0.838) 0.744 (0.691 – 0.898)
  1. Dashed horizontal lines shows the cut-off points for dichotomization of estimated mortality risk looking for optimal sensitivity-specificity combination in the derivation sample, leading to a sensitivity of 0.651 and a specificity of 0.848 for 30-day mortality risk and a sensitivity of 0.662 and a specificity of 0.823 for 60-day mortality risk