| |
Derivation sample (1252)
|
Validation sample (1235)
|
|---|
|
30-day mortality
|
|
Risk group (Fig. 1)
|
No (1206)
|
Yes (36)
|
No (1193)
|
Yes (42)
|
|
Low
|
785 (99.1)
|
7 (0.9)
|
769 (98.7)
|
10 (1.3)
|
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
|
Medium
|
218 (96.0)
|
9 (4.0)
|
243 (97.2)
|
7 (2.8)
|
|
High
|
146 (91.8)
|
13 (8.2)
|
135 (93.1)
|
10 (6.9)
|
|
Very high
|
57 (77.0)
|
17 (23.0)
|
46 (75.4)
|
15 (24.6)
|
|
AUC
|
0.808 (0.742 – 0.873)
|
0.767 (0.686 – 0.847)
|
|
60-day mortality
|
|
Risk group (Fig. 2)
|
No (1173)
|
Yes (79)
|
No (1159)
|
Yes (76)
|
|
Low
|
515 (99.4)
|
3 (0.6)
|
507 (98.4)
|
8 (1.6)
|
|
Medium
|
183 (96.8)
|
6 (3.2)
|
160 (94.7)
|
9 (5.3)
|
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
—
|
|
High
|
387 (90.6)
|
40 (9.4)
|
424 (92.8)
|
33 (7.2)
|
|
Very high
|
88 (74.6)
|
30 (25.4)
|
68 (72.3)
|
26 (27.7)
|
|
AUC
|
0.798 (0.757 – 0.838)
|
0.744 (0.691 – 0.898)
|
- Dashed horizontal lines shows the cut-off points for dichotomization of estimated mortality risk looking for optimal sensitivity-specificity combination in the derivation sample, leading to a sensitivity of 0.651 and a specificity of 0.848 for 30-day mortality risk and a sensitivity of 0.662 and a specificity of 0.823 for 60-day mortality risk
