Table 1 Input parameters used in the model

Exacerbation rate (in first 3 months)

Community treated

0.534

0.483-0.586

Normal

[11]

ED treated

0.050

0.028-0.072

Poisson

[11]

Hospital treated

0.096

0.063-0.129

Poisson

[11]

Intervention effects trial

RR community treated exacerbation

0.903

0.737-1.106

LogNormal

[11]

RR ED treated exacerbation

0.815

0.411-1.618

LogNormal

[11]

RR hospital treated exacerbation

0.252

0.121-0.523

LogNormal

[11]

Medication adherence improvement (%)

8.51

4.62-12.40

Normal

[11]

Exacerbation rate (>3 months, per year)

Mild state - Community treated

0.61

0.34-1.10

LogNormal

Derived

Mild state - ED treated

0.06

0.01-0.30

LogNormal

Derived

Mild state - Hospital treated

0.11

0.02-0.56

LogNormal

[22]

Moderate state - Community treated

0.89

0.70-1.12

LogNormal

Derived

Moderate state - ED treated

0.08

0.04-0.18

LogNormal

Derived

Moderate state - Hospital treated

0.16

0.07-0.33

LogNormal

[22]

Severe state - Community treated

1.22

1.14-1.31

LogNormal

Derived

Severe state - ED treated

0.11

0.11-0.12

LogNormal

Derived

Severe state - Hospital treated

0.22

0.20-0.23

LogNormal

[22]

Very severe state - Community treated

1.55

1.11-2.17

LogNormal

Derived

Very severe state - ED treated

0.14

0.07-0.30

LogNormal

Derived

Very severe state - Hospital treated

0.28

0.14-0.63

LogNormal

[22]

Costs (€)

Intervention fixed

10,000

8,136-12,053

Gamma

Estimate

Intervention per-patient per 3 months

50

29-77

Gamma

Estimate

Medication (100% adherence) per year

1,022

790-1285

Logistic

[23]

Exacerbation community treated

106

60-163

Gamma

[24]

Exacerbation ED treated

712

407-1100

Gamma

[24]

Exacerbation hospital treated

5,617

5,557-5,677

Gamma

[25]

Utilities

Mild COPD state

0.897

0.8561-0.9319

Beta

[26]

Moderate COPD state

0.755

0.6921-0.8131

Beta

[26]

Severe COPD state

0.748

0.6761-0.8138

Beta

[26]

Very severe COPD state

0.549

0.4325-0.6634

Beta

[26]

Exacerbation community treated

-0.0166

0.0126-0.0212

Beta

[27]

Exacerbation ED treated

-0.0300

0.0244-0.0361

Beta

Estimate

Exacerbation hospital treated

-0.0482

0.0326-0.0666

Beta

[27]