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Table 5 Predictors of asthma-related mortality

From: Long-term predictors of severe exacerbations and mortality in a cohort of well-characterised adults with asthma

  Bivariate model
HR (95% CI)
Multivariable
HR (95% CI)
Sex, women 1.33 (0.89–2.01)
Age   
 15–45 1.00 1.00
 46–69 16.4 (9.62–27.9)** 5.11 (2.77–9.43)**
 ≥ 70 29.0 (12.6–66.5)** 9.00 (3.55–22.9)**
Decade of inclusion   
 1974–1979 2.25 (0.84–6.06)
 1980–1989 1.67 (0.67–4.12)
 1990 1.00
Years since symptom debut 1.05 (1.04–1.06)** 1.05 (1.03–1.07)**
Adult-onseta 2.63 (1.49–4.65)** 3.20 (1.42–7.21)*
Ever smokerb 2.07 (1.38–3.11)** 2.43 (1.58–3.74)**
Pack-years, only ever smokers 1.06 (1.04–1.08)** 1.03 (1.00–1.07)*
Previous severe exacerbation 0.58 (0.30–1.11)
Daily symptoms 3.21 (2.11–4.89)** 1.35 (0.86–2.12)
Daily β2-agonist use, > 2 puffs 4.21 (2.57–6.89)** 2.11 (1.26–3.663)*
ICS prescribed at baseline, any dose 1.82 (1.17–2.84)* 1.16 (0.73–1.73)
Lung function   
 FEV1% pred. < 80% 8.28 (5.04–13.6)** 3.46 (1.94–6.16)**
 FEV1/FVC ratio, < 70% 6.58 (4.27–10.1)** 1.40 (0.84–2.33)
BD reversibility   
 < 12% 1.00
 ≥ 12% 1.70 (0.88–3.29)
AHR, mg/ml   
 < 1 0.47 (0.17–1.31) 0.95 (0.31–2.94)
 ≥ 1 to < 2 0.36 (0.13–0.97)* 1.03 (0.34–3.10)
 ≥ 2 to < 8 0.23 (0.09–0.58)* 1.61 (0.56–4.60)
 ≥ 8 1.00 1.00
Peak flow variability 0.84 (0.55–1.29)
Blood eosinophils, × 109/l   
 < 0.09 1.78 (0.79–3.96) 1.23 (0.54–2.81)
 ≥ 0.09 to ≤ 0.4 1.00 1.00
 > 0.4 1.56 (1.02–2.37)** 1.63 (1.05–2.53)*
Total IgE, < 150 IU/L 0.75 (0.49–1.45)
Negative skin prick test, n (%) 4.10 (2.62–6.44)** 0.65 (0.40–1.07)
  1. Results from bivariate and multivariable cox proportional hazards model shown as hazard ratio (95% CI)
  2. AHR airway hyperresponsiveness, BD bronchodilator, FEV1 forced expiratory volume in 1 second, FVC forced vital capacity, IU international units, ICS inhaled corticosteroids, OCS oral corticosteroids
  3. aAge ≥ 18 years
  4. bCurrent or ex-smokers.
  5. *p-value < 0.05. **p-value < 0.001. Multivariable model: Wald Chi2 = 190 Degrees of freedom = 13. p < 0.0001