Table 4 Comparison of predictive validity of the optimal prediction rule to the PESI and sPESI
Characteristic | Optimal (95% CI) | PESI (95% CI) | sPESI (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
AUC | 0.800 (0.729, 0.871) | 0.716 (0.626, 0.805) | 0.703 (0.613, 0.793) |
Prevalence of low-risk | 0.639 (0.594, 0.682) | 0.649 (0.605, 0.692) | 0.795 (0.756, 0.830) |
Sensitivity | 0.930 (0.809, 0.985) | 0.814 (0.666, 0.916) | 0.907 (0.779, 0.974) |
Specificity | 0.390 (0.344, 0.437) | 0.367 (0.322, 0.414) | 0.216 (0.179, 0.258) |
Positive predictive value | 0.130 (0.094, 0.173) | 0.112 (0.079, 0.152) | 0.102 (0.073, 0.137) |
Negative predictive value | 0.983 (0.950, 0. 996) | 0.953 (0.909, 0.979) | 0.960 (0.900, 0.989) |
Positive likelihood ratio | 1.524 (1.364, 1.702) | 1.285 (1.096, 1.508) | 1.157 (1.039, 1.289) |
Negative likelihood ratio | 0.179 (0.060, 0.537) | 0.507 (0.268, 0.959) | 0.430 (0.166, 1.112) |